State, county population numbers decline slightly

*Appeared in the Laurel Leader Call newspaper 

According to recent Census Bureau data, Mississippi is one of just three states that lost population, seeing a slight decrease from 2010 to 2020 of -0.2 percent.  (The other states that lost population are Illinois and West Virginia.)   

But, there are some pockets of Mississippi that are growing. Over the last ten years, approximately 18 counties saw population gains, even though some gains were only slight.  It appears that at least 12 counties had growth of at least three percent, including Desoto (14.9%), Harrison (11.5%), Rankin (10.9%), Madison (14.6%), Lamar (15.4%), Lafayette (17.9%), Forrest (4.3%), Hancock (4.8%), Oktibbeha (8.6%), Pontotoc (4.1%), George (7.8%), and Stone (3.1%). 

 

Here in the Free State, growth was slightly negative, at -0.8 percent. In 2010, the total population for Jones County was 67,761; in 2020, that figure dropped to 67,246. 

 

As was noted by an Empower Mississippi analysis of population, the state’s growth was primarily limited to areas including the Gulf Coast; Jackson, Miss. suburbs of Rankin and Madison; the Tupelo/Lee County region; the Pine Belt; SEC towns (such as Oxford in Lafayette and Starkville in Oktibbeha); and Desoto County, which they characterize as a suburb of Memphis. 

 

As I write this column, the Census Bureau is holding a news conference to release the first local level results from the 2020 Census, which will be used by states to draw the boundaries of congressional districts and state legislative districts. The news conference will also provide analysis of the population change, race, ethnicity, the age 18 and over population, and housing occupancy status. (Data nerds rejoice!) 

 

Growth in the Pine Belt region is a net positive for citizens in this area.  New Census numbers mean a redistricting effort is around the corner, and areas which experience growth tend to receive more legislative love than those where population losses are sustained.  

 

In fact, citizens will have an opportunity to voice their input into redistricting efforts during one of nine scheduled public hearings held on behalf of the joint legislative committee which oversees redrawing legislative lines. 

 

The hearings will be live-streamed on the Mississippi Legislature website (www.legislature.ms.gov and click on “webcast”).  The meetings are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. and are scheduled in places like Meridian, Tupelo, Senatobia, Itta Bena, Starkville, Natchez, Gulfport, and Jackson. The closest hearing for Pine Belt residents will be held August 19 in Hattiesburg at the University of Southern Mississippi’s Joe Paul Theater in the Thad Cochran Center.

 

If you’re concerned about representation at the federal or state level, I encourage you to attend and/or watch these hearings to better understand how redistricting is handled from the Mississippi legislative perspective. After all, it will be another ten years or so before you get this type of opportunity again. 

Teen pregnancy rates dip, but out-of-wedlock births lead to larger economic challenges

*First appeared in the Laurel Chronicle on June 6, 2013.

About two weeks ago, the Centers for Disease Control released another of its reports full of charts, numbers, and phrases like “data sources and methodology.” Got your attention? I didn’t think so, but stay with me.

This CDC report (“Declines in State Teen Birth Rates by Race and Hispanic Origin”) focused on teenage pregnancy, a topic all-too-familiar in this state. But the findings aren’t what you might think: Nationally, teenage births have seen a dramatic decline, with Mississippi following the trend. Over the five-year period (2007-2011), Mississippi’s teenage birth rate dropped from a whopping 70 percent (wow!) to 50 percent, or a decline of 28 percent. While 50 percent is still too high, the downward trend is encouraging. That’s the good news.

Although the 2011 data hasn’t been released yet, I thought it prudent to check on the trend of another measure: nonmarital, or out-of-wedlock, births. Over the past five years of available CDC data (2006-2010), out-of-wedlock births in this state have risen slightly, with more than one-half (54.8 percent) of all births falling in this category. That’s the bad news.

Why? Because the shift in the American family structure – specifically, the increase in out-of-wedlock births – has a dramatic and lasting impact on our economic growth. While I am most interested in monetary issues, I have come to realize it’s impossible (and impractical) to isolate economic policies from the over-arching issue of family structure. The two are inevitably linked. To put it simply: Families matter.

Illegitimacy typically leads to negative outcomes for both mother and child. This isn’t my opinion; it’s backed up by recent stats from the U.S. Census Bureau (yes, another government report). Out-of-wedlock births have increased since the 1940s, with dramatic upticks seen in recent years. According to the Census Bureau’s “Social and Economic Characteristics of Currently Unmarried Women with a Recent Birth,” individuals who have children outside of marriage are generally younger, have less education, and have lower income levels than married parents. Children born out of wedlock are more likely to be poor; even those kids who live in co-habiting households (where the mom and dad live together but are not married) have negative developmental and behavioral outcomes “due in part to family instability.”

In Mississippi, the out-of-wedlock birth rate is 54.8 percent according to the CDC. Broken down by race, we see that rate at 32.3 percent for whites; 56 percent for Hispanics; and 81.4 percent for blacks. Consider the known outcome of illegitimacy on poverty, income, and educational attainment. The African-American community is particularly hard hit.

Interestingly, the Census Bureau report notes that states with higher illegitimacy rates have, on average, correspondingly low levels of economic success: Lagging median incomes; elevated drop-out rates; low levels of higher educational attainment; and high levels of poverty. Mississippi checks the box in virtually every category.

Other considerations I’ve not mentioned include crime rates, which are closely linked to child rearing, and workforce development, including the readiness of an individual to join the workplace. Believe it or not, many employers today have problems finding workers with so-called “soft skills” – such as knowing what to wear in a work environment or punctuality. It makes sense, though, as these skills have traditionally been taught in the home setting.

So what do we do about it? First, we recognize we cannot legislate our way out of this complex problem. Lawmakers can pass laws that target dropout prevention; they can increase access to contraception or, contrarily, heavily regulate abortion clinics. Taxpayer funds can be used to teach “soft skills” to a modern labor force or to help impoverished communities attract economic development projects.

Given my background as a government policy wonk, I support innovative implementation of most of these ideas. But government is limited in that it can only target symptoms of a greater problem: A dramatically shifting American family structure.

Just as the problem of out-of-wedlock births begins in our communities, so should our response. Churches, civic groups, community organizations, parent-teacher associations, and others should take action. They should proactively target those within their reach, whether it’s high school students or a church youth group. Parents-to-be should be encouraged by their neighbors; honest dialogue should occur between friends who are considering marriage (or not). A special look should be given to those communities who are suffering most – such as the 80 percent of black children born outside of a marriage.

After all, when we fail to take personal responsibility, we fail as a community. In this failure, we create a void that is often filled by a government ill-equipped to impact real change. At the very least, we know the government will embrace its role as societal fixer – but usually through bureaucratic largesse that leads to increased spending and higher taxes…which brings us right back to economics, like I said.